Bank of Canada sees home loss risk
December 11, 2008
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THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–The Bank of Canada is warning of severe economic turmoil, including the risk of many Canadians losing their homes, if the financial-market crisis worsens.
The central bank's December financial systems review says the "most likely outcome" is for markets and credit conditions in Canada to gradually improve as extraordinary measures by central banks and governments take hold.
But that outcome is by no means certain, it warns, saying uncertainties remain about how long it will take for credit markets to return to normal.
And if global financial conditions deteriorate, the bank warns the repercussions for Canada could be serious, including a deep and prolonged recession, slow income growth and severe trouble for Canadians already carrying heavy debt loads.
"With household balance sheets under pressure from weak equity markets, softening house prices, slowing income growth, and record-high debt-to-income ratios, a severe economic downturn could result in a substantial increase in default rates on household debt," the review states.
Canadian banks are among the best-capitalized in the world but would not emerge unscathed, the central bank's analysis concludes.
Much as has happened in the United States, the document says household debt woes could be a channel of contagion spreading through the banking system and cause even greater tightening in the availability of credit.
Banks are somewhat insulated by mortgage insurance, but the Bank of Canada says a severe economic downturn would nonetheless put pressure on their capital ratios.
thestar.com